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The US and Russia
Mainichi - August 4, 2018
The true shape and potential consequences of the Trump administration’s foreign policy have taken time to emerge. But now, in just the past three months, much more has become clear thanks to President Trump’s two major set-piece summits with the North...
The greatest issue of our time...
Prospect - July 3, 2018
The greatest issue of our time in political economy is how to reconcile societies to the process we now call globalisation, with all the inequality and insecurity that have come with it. We only need to mention Brexit, Trump and the Five Star-League government...
Mainichi - June 22, 2018
A common saying among military men is that a country should never send troops into battle without having an exit strategy, a plan for how to end the conflict and withdraw. This is a good principle though it is often ignored by the military’s political...
The Italian Government
Vanity Fair - June 2, 2018
No one knows how to label the new government. Calling it “populist” seems bizarre given that Italian politics has been dominated for two decades by the original populist, Silvio Berlusconi. Calling it anti-establishment also seems weird given that...
Mainichi - May 10, 2018
The key question to ask oneself while we wait for the historic summit between Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, and President Donald Trump of the United States, is which side is in the stronger position and which the weaker? This would be important...
Mainichi - March 30, 2018
How do you deal with a neighbour like Russia, which seems to enjoy breaking all sorts of rules, both legal ones and ethical ones? By economic sanctions? By expelling its diplomats and spies? By ejecting it from the G8 group of big economic powers? Or...
Japan is most at risk in the North Korean missile crisis
CapX - August 1, 2017
The drama is one being orchestrated in North Korea with its showy missile tests and in the US with America’s showy bomber patrols. The loudest noise is being directed at China, accused in Donald Trump’s tweets of “doing...
How Macron can fix Europe´s despair
CapX - May 16, 2017
Macron begins his first full day as president of France bearing a heavy weight
of expectations. To say that he holds the fate of the West and its liberal
democracies in his hands would be to go too far, but...
Japan has much to lose from a US-China bust-up
CapX - March 6, 2017
East Asia has been
a paragon of peace for decades, but both North Korea and China seem determined
to remind the world – and especially their neighbour Japan – that this mustn’t
be taken for granted. On Monday morning,...
European politics in 2017
Gaiko Forum - January 2017
For day-to-day drama, the eyes of the world in 2017 will of
course be focused on the new American president, at least during his early
months in office. But for longer-term impact on geopolitics and the global
Italy´s Five Star Movement has crushed a PM. It shouldn´t be ignored
Prospect Magazine - December 12, 2016
The long, slow fuse on Italy’s time-bomb has been lit. The crushing defeat of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reform proposals in the national referendum on 4th December has left the whole country—indeed the whole of Europe—wondering whether...
My Ofcom story
- November 21 2016
MY OFCOM STORY -- A TALE OF MISMANAGEMENT AND INCOMPETENCE BY THOSE TO WHOM WE ARE ENTRUSTING REGULATION OF THE BBC.
The Rt Hon Karen Bradley MP
Secretary of State
Department of Culture, Media and...
Matteo Renzi has put Italy´s future—and that of the euro—at stake in a referendum
Prospect Magazine - November 18, 2016
A time-bomb is ticking away in the heart of Europe, carrying a label marked “Made in Italy.” It could yet be defused. But if it goes off, it would make Brexit look like a lot of fuss about nothing.The time-bomb has been laid by Italy’s young, reformist...
What Trump Means for Britain
CapX - November 9, 2016
On the face of it, Donald Trump’s astonishing victory should
be good news for Britain, post-Brexit. The UK will no longer be “at the end of
the queue” for trade deals with the US, as President Obama warned, since all
Inflation, not Brexit, should be worrying our policy makers
CapX - October 12, 2016
Harold Wilson is alive and well and running Britainâ€™s
post-Brexit economic policy. He is telling us why Brexit already means we are
worse off and will eventually mean recession, and how that will happen.
Six Questions for Europe in 2016
Wake Up Europe - December 21, 2015
childish cry of “it’s all about me” has often been the subtext of British
Eurosceptics’ campaigns against the European Union as well as the
Europe-bashing seen in the British press. It still won’t quite be...
Further thoughts, following the Paris atrocities
- November 17, 2015
Walking around Milan, London
or Zurich, as I have been doing over the past couple of days, or indeed any
other European city, has been to see displays of instant solidarity. The French
flags and light displays of...
Thoughts after Paris
- November 14, 2015
The best thing India did after the
co-ordinated bombing and shooting attacks in Mumbai in November 2008 that left
164 people dead was to take time to think and to grieve before it reacted. And
its reactions, when they came, were with hindsight surprisingly...
An Open Letter to European Media
Politico - October 2, 2015
We recognize, don’t we, that Europe — the countries of Europe,
the European Union as an entity, the very idea of Europe — is facing the worst collective threats in
living memory? These crises —...
How to Fix Europe
Politico - October 2, 2015
Europe is beset by many crises, but enveloping them all is a
crisis that is both broader and deeper: a crisis of public confidence in the
European Union itself. Nowhere has this been more evident than over the issue
Can Germany lead at last?
Politico - July 9, 2015
Originally published by Politico There’s only one country that can get Europe out of this mess. But Berlin is balking. Europe—and indeed the world—is about to learn the answer to a crucial question: What does Germany want from the European Union,...
Bill Emmott´s 10-point plan to keep the UK in the EU
CapX - May 22, 2015
clock is now ticking on Britain´s in-out referendum, which looks likely to be
held sometime in 2016. So if the pro-EU camp--in which it is presumed that
David Cameron sits--is to prevent that clock from becoming a time-bomb it had
The British Question
Prospect, June issue - May 20, 2015
Before the 2010 general election, David Cameron
lamented what he called “broken Britain,” but quickly dropped the idea once he
got into office. Now that he has won office again, such words promise to come
back to haunt him. His legacy, when he stands...
Europe´s two crises
L´Espresso - May 8, 2015
Fasten your safety belts. Europe is heading
for not just one crisis but two, both of which could lead to disaster,
disintegration and the collapse of the whole European Union.
Those are apocalyptic words, perhaps not
what you would expect...
Thatcher understood the pro-market case for Britain staying in the EU
CAPX - March 2, 2015
My response to Daniel
Hannan’s article “Pro-EU propaganda film is a disaster for the
BBC” about the film by Annalisa Piras, “The Great European
Disaster Movie”, will avoid addressing his ad hominem remarks or
questioning his merits as...
China In the World: Ruling Without a Blueprint
Montrose Journal - December 27, 2014
The Western world’s
bookshelves are groaning under the weight of tomes pondering “What
Does China Think?” (Mark Leonard, 2008) or what will happen “When
China Rules the World” (Martin Jacques, 2009), along with similar
Matteo Renzi: as Thatcher, rather than Blair
L´Espresso - February 27, 2014
For someone who claims to want to
emulate Britain’s Tony Blair, Matteo Renzi has made a strange start
in national politics. When I interviewed him on camera for
“Girlfriend in a Coma” he cited Blair as wisely saying he loved
BENDING ADVERSITY: Japan and the Art of Survival. By David Pilling. Allen Lane
Literary Review - December
Working in Japan as a foreign
correspondent, as your reviewer did three decades ago for The
Economist and as David Pilling did brilliantly for the Financial
Times from 2002-08, can be a frustrating business. You quickly
´How to Be Like Tony Blair´ Five Good Advice to Matteo Renzi
L´Espresso - December 13, 2013
So the whole world now knows what
Italians have known for years: that Matteo Renzi fancies himself as
Italy’s Tony Blair. Presumably, what Renzi has in mind is not
today’s Blair as globe-trotting multi-millionaire adviser to the
Cyprus Bailout: Europe´s Love just got even Tougher
The Guardian - March 26, 2013
the euro has been saved, but the eurozone continues to stumble towards
disaster. The distinction matters, even if European finance ministers emerged
from their late-night negotiations talking proudly of having kept...
The Cult of Silvio Berlusconi: Why Italians keep Voting for ´Il Cavaliere´
CNN - February 27, 2013
On the subject of Silvio Berlusconi
Italians and non-Italians are, to paraphrase George Bernard-Shaw’s famous quip
about Britain and America, divided by a common political language.We think we share the view that in a
Investors in Italy can Look beyond Monti
FT - December 6, 2012
It will be quite a responsibility to follow
an acknowledged saviour, a man so trusted by the international lenders on whom
your country depends that most of them not-so-secretly hope that he will still
be prime minister...
Christ Stopped at Taranto
L´Espresso - December 2, 2012
A joke journalists
like to tell is that when arriving in a foreign country you should write your book
about it within a month. From then on, what once looked clear will feel far
more complex, and your eyes will become blurred...
Follow the Money
FT - November 9, 2012
It is one of the oldest questions in political economy: why should another person’s mega-wealth worry you, if you are comfortably off yourself? the “occupy wall streeters” think that the wealth of the 1% has painful and damaging...
Waking from the Coma: A Future for Italy
CNN - 14th February 2012
On my first visit to Italy, at the age of
18, I fell in love with the country and its amazing history almost at first
sight, as I and my friends sailed across the lagoon on the ferry to Venice.
When we returned and found...
Imagine that the Euro will die
L´Espresso - July 18th 2011
Throughout the global financial crisis and then more recently the euro-zone government debt crisis, actions and events that were described as unthinkable or inconceivable have suddenly come to be called normal. It is now time to consider another unthinkable...
If L´Aquila were Tokyo
L´Espresso - April 21st 2011
Culturally, Japan and Italy are as far apart as they are geographically. Yet they still share some surprising similarities. Both are proud of their manufacturing traditions, but worried about them amid slow economic growth and fierce Chinese competition;...
How to save the euro
L´Espresso - January 21st 2011
The euro is like a beautiful modern building, one that is still attracting new tenants (Estonia joined on January 1st) and hosting a helluva rooftop party for its richest, most successful residents (the Germans). But down in the basement there is a huge...
And then get rid of Berlusconismo...
L´espresso - November 25th 2010
The strangest thing about Silvio Berlusconi is that he has appeared unconcerned about leaving any kind of a legacy, any set of achievements through which he might be remembered. All he has wanted, apart from his personal interests, has been numbers: his...
David Cameron´s mixed message
The Guardian - April 1st 2010
Business endorsement for their NI cut is handy, but will not solve the Tories´ credibility gap with voters over ´efficiency savings´
No one is going to vote on the basis of a 1% rise, or cut, in National Insurance contributions (NICs)....
Time for a change, in Japan
Asahi Shimbun - July 15th 2009
A time for change. That is the basic feeling that surrounds elections in parliamentary democracies all over the world, especially when one party has been in government for quite a number of years. Japan has long been the exception, right up until the...
China is not the only modern state
The Guardian - June 25th 2009
Perhaps in half a century, the world will be rather more interesting than the Sino-centric one offered by Martin Jacques
In my view there is both less to Martin Jacques´s thesis and more. The reason there is less to it is that the central principle...
Budget: A Labour scrappage scheme
The Guardian - April 22nd 2009
Despite Darling´s best efforts, the rich won´t bolt, the tax rise won´t raise much, and Labour will still lose the general election
Basically, this budget revealed what we all knew already: that the British economy is in a deep hole...
Exciting? No--and thank God for that
Daily Telegraph - April 4th 2009
Committee meetings are not occasions from which grand, radical solutions can be expected to emerge. But it is nevertheless important to hold them, so that everyone who matters (and many who don’t) can have a chance to say their piece, and so that you...
Brown must focus on the banks
The Guardian - March 26th 2009
Given their lack of fiscal room to manoeuvre, Brown and Darling should take RBS and Lloyds/HBOS into full public ownership
Can this truly be called a "retreat"? Only last November, when Alistair Darling was unveiling his package of VAT cuts and extra...
A silver lining for Japan
The Guardian - February 20th 2009
The economic suffering here has been harsh and long, but at last political change is coming
In the race to report the worst economic contraction among rich countries this year, Britain is being run close by another island nation: Japan, the world´s...
Japan: The End of Gridlock
Newsweek - January 10th 2009
Hard economic times will be politically risky for many countries, bringing populism, protectionism, mass protests, internal strife, revolution and even perhaps war. Yet at least one important country stands to benefit politically from the recession. That...
I wasn´t right. But that´s OK
The Guardian - January 3rd 2009
“What, pray, is all the fuss about?” asked a sage columnist in these pages on the first anniversary of the credit crunch (“Crisis, what crisis?”, Guardian August 12th 2008). In response to claims that this was a great crisis of capitalism he even deployed...
The cash of civilisations
Financial Times - November 1st 2008
Review by Bill Emmott
The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the WorldBy Niall FergusonAllen Lane £25, 464 pagesFT Bookshop price: £20
If, in accordance with the mood of the moment, you are wont to think that financiers are all parasites,...
The rise of Asia is not a simple matter of East versus West
The Independent - October 30th 2008
There is a tendency, particularly in Washington and occasionally in Western Europe, to think of the rise of Japan, China and India as being in some way a matter of power shifting from the Western powers to the East. My belief, and the essence of the argument...
Washington Post - October 19th 2008
Historians identify changes in eras in terms of decades, even centuries. Commentators are a much more impatient bunch: A few weeks of turmoil on Wall Street,...
Can Japan offer the solution to the financial crisis?
Daily Telegraph - October 4th 2008
Bail-out: Can Japan offer the solution to the financial crisis?
Japan’s 1990s banking crisis offers the solution to our woes, says Bill Emmott.
Last Updated: 10:30PM BST 03 Oct 2008
Land of the rising sums: government´s failure...
Crisis, what crisis?
The Guardian - August 12th 2008
What, pray, is all the fuss about? Since August 9th last year, we have (according to the sages at the IMF) been in “the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.” Aditya Chakrabortty, in these pages last week (“Capitalism lies in shambles, and...
Desperate days for Doha
Asahi Shimbun - July 28th 2008
This week, on the shores of Lake Geneva, a meeting has been taking place that could determine whether globalization continues to make progress or whether restrictions against trade and cross-border investment begin to be rebuilt. This assembly of trade...
U. S. can lead the way to cut carbon emissions
Newsday - July 15th 2008
It is always right to look at agreements made at the annual Group of Eight summits of rich-country leaders with skepticism. These summits are little more than photo opportunities with banquets attached. But the response of environmentalists to the G8´s...
Asia and the American election
Asahi Shimbun - June 16th 2008
Now that the Democrats have at last chosen their presidential candidate, the real guessing game can begin: what might the choice between Barack Obama and John McCain mean for Japan? Or for Asia in general?
GM crops can save us from food shortages
Daily Telegraph - April 17th 2008
It is remarkable how rapidly the world has moved from worrying about deflation to worrying about inflation; from cheer to despondency about the reduction of poverty; and from concern about food surpluses to panic about shortages.
The hand of rising food...
Lessons from Japan´s economic malaise
Washington Post - March 28th 2008
A little knowledge can be not just dangerous but grossly misleading. That is the right conclusion to draw from the latest, surprisingly reassuring data about the U.S. economy and from the interview in yesterday´s Wall Street Journal in which Sen....
The IMF and its fiscal recipe
Asahi Shimbun - February 18th 2008
If you think back ten years ago, to the East Asian financial crisis that began in Thailand and then spread all over the region, brought down the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia and then hit other emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil, what is the...
The coming change in China
Voice - January 2008
The momentum behind China’s economic and political rise is impressive. It brings to mind the phrase "shock and awe" that was commonly used by American military thinkers in connection with the invasion of Iraq in 2003—before things went so badly wrong...
We must not ignore the wild gyrations of Asian traders
The Guardian - January 25th 2008
It is so nice when a consensus forms among the economic commentators. There is going to be a recession in America, the pack says, and probably in Britain too, for we have both sinned with our debt, our deficits and our soaring house prices. But the world...
Tata´s Nano car and India´s arrival
Asahi Shimbun - January 19th 2008
Lakes full of ink have been spilled about the unveiling in India on January 10th by Tata Motors of its new, super-cheap car. Many have pondered whether the $2,500 (Y270,000) car, called the Tata Nano, will worsen global warming and cause chaos on India’s...
Minimum wages in Germany and Japan
Asahi Shimbun - December 26th 2007
Politics and economics often pull in different directions. In the world’s third biggest economy, Germany, a policy is being debated intensely that makes little economic sense but much political sense. In the world’s second biggest economy, Japan, that...
The importance of Pakistan to Japan
Asahi Shimbun - November 18th 2007
In 1938 the British prime minister, Neville Chamberlain, justified his attempt to ignore Adolf Hitler’s invasion of the central European state of Czechoslovakia by describing the issue as "a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know...
Why Fukuda should visit Nanjing
Asahi Shimbun - October 8th 2007
For an outsider to comment about the historical issues between Japan and China feels instinctively awkward—rather like a stranger butting in on a family quarrel.
When Congressmen such as Mike Honda introduce bills to the US House of Representatives...
The Age of Turbulence: Book review
Sunday Times - September 30th 2007
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World. By Alan Greenspan Allen Lane £25 pp531
The common image of Alan Greenspan is of a brilliant but rather nerdy man, who as the world’s most important central banker developed convoluted, ambiguous language...
Nightmares about globalisation
Asahi Shimbun - September 3rd 2007
There are two popular nightmares about globalisation, and sadly neither is quite foolish enough to be easily proven false. Over the next year, both are going to be tested by events in the world economy—especially by the financial turmoil that woke the...
Tony Blair´s lessons for Japan
Toyo Keizai - July 28th 2007
Tony Blair is undoubtedly a model for political success. After all, he survived for 10 years as Britain’s prime minister and won three general elections in a row, the first two of them (in 1997 and 2001) by huge majorities. He is a celebrity among politicians,...
Shinzo Abe´s lessons for Gordon Brown
Asahi Shimbun - July 23rd 2007
It is hard to follow a superstar. In that regard, Britain’s Gordon Brown and Japan’s Shinzo Abe share a common predicament. Like Mr Abe in October 2006, Gordon Brown started well last month when he took over Britain’s prime ministership from Tony Blair....
Tough love needed for climate change to stop
Asahi Shimbun - June 24th 2007
Nowadays, we all think that the planet needs to be saved and we all want to do our bit to save it. That, at least, is what a visitor from outer space might conclude if they had been lucky enough to land just when the Group of Eight (G8) summit was being...
China´s stockmarket bubble
Asahi Shimbun - May 21st 2007
What is a bubble? No one really knows: people tend to agree on what bubbles are only after they have burst. But a pretty fair indicator is when a stockmarket index has risen by more than 150% last year, and has risen by more than 50% so far this year....
Japan´s interest in an Asian community
Asahi Shimbun - April 1st 2007
The European Union has just celebrated its 50th birthday, or rather the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome which established the first, small, club of six countries that has now grown to a membership of 27 European nations. Visiting...
The best idea: do nothing
International Herald Tribune - January 4th 2007
By Vladimir Dlouhy and Bill Emmott
A twice-yearly European ritual began this week when Chancellor Angela Merkel announced her priorities during Germany´s six months as the next president of the Council of the European Union.
We would like to offer some...
The World in 2006 - January 2006
Junichiro Koizumi will leave Japan´s economy on the mend and its politics invigorated
A Japanese spring
The land of the rising sun has been swathed in so much cloud during the past decade that even the optimists...
Japan Inc., RIP
The Wall Street Journal - March 2005
The appointment of the first foreign-born chief executive to run one of Japan´s most famous companies, Sony, looks like a clear sign that something dramatic is happening in Japanese business. It isn´t. Instead, the arrival of Sir Howard Stringer at the...
Koizumi faces divisions as traditional role changes
The Scotsman - July 2004
Japan´s sun is rising again, after a decade of stagnation, with economic recovery now widely based and quite powerful, even if it is too soon to say whether better times are back for good. You would thus expect the man who has been prime minister...
Japan´s English lessons
Foreign Policy - January 2004
North Korea´s nuclear threat is forcing Japan to choose between two strategic options: draw closer to the United States, or develop a more autonomous and assertive foreign policy. How to balance these competing visions? Look to another island nation,...
The rise and fall of the sun
New Statesman - September 2003
Is the vacuum of leadership that led Japan astray in the 1930s not also the country´s central political problem today, asks BILL EMMOTT
The rise and fall of the sun
Review: Inventing Japan: from empire to economic miracle (1853-1964), Ian Buruma
New Statesman - June 2003
The past 20 years have seen the growth of a huge global middle class. So George Monbiot is wrong to say that poverty is increasing, and equally wrong in his dream of a world parliament to help those who are still poor.
If Saddam steps out of line we must go straight to war
The Guardian - November 2002
There were three speakers on the panel - an American hawk, a European multilateralist and a Russian liberal MP - but it was the Russian who sprang the surprise. The topic was Iraq. The European audience was sceptical about George Bush´s views, and expected...
Time for a referendum on the monarchy
The Guardian - December 2000
"What, you a republican?!," exploded a Tory peer recently when the subject of the Economist´s anti-monarchical views came up; "but you are intelligent, you think things through."
I could simply have returned the compliment, but the grilling swiftly...
Rights For The Right
Prospect Magazine - March 1997
Parliamentary sovereignty is not the solution to Britain´s European impasse. Bill Emmott, editor of The Economist, and David Manasian, argue that Thatcherites and Hayekians should embrace constitutional reform and a bill of rights as a permanent restraint...