Articles:
Frustrating Japan
01.09.08 Publication: Exame
The economic news is indeed rather depressing for
This is not inevitable, of course: nothing ever is in politics. But without a general election, there cannot be such economic reforms, as for the past two years government policy has been trapped by a political stalemate, with the two houses of
That stalemate has been irksome. But it reflected the arrival, at last, of genuine change in Japanese politics. For the real oddity about Japan since its economic troubles began in 1990 has been the failure of opposition parties to seize power from the Liberal Democratic Party, the group that had ruled Japan without interruption ever since 1955. In any other democracy, the ruling party would have been punished severely for its economic and governance mistakes, and new parties and politicians would have risen to replace it in government. Not in
Now, at long last, the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Fukuda reflects not the lack of change but the extent of it: the power of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan since the 2007 Upper House elections, which gave it the ability to block legislation, and the likelihood that it could indeed seize power after the next Lower House election, due by September 2009.
The poor Japanese consumer
Politics in
The recent downturn has been caused by weakness in exports and in capital investment. Some of that drop in investment may well be temporary, as it reflected a drop in residential construction following new building regulations. But exports are likely to remain weak as demand in both of
What every economist has been waiting for during Japan’s seven-year expansion has been a sign that household consumption could start to grow strongly, as employment and wages rise, taking over leadership of the economy from the export sector and providing a new spur to corporate investment. But this has not happened. Although employment has risen, wages have not. Consumer demand has grown, but only gently. As a result, despite the rapid rise in prices for imported energy and food, deflationary forces still persist in
The economic stimulus package produced by the Fukuda administration a few days before his resignation showed that the LDP still does not understand the state of the Japanese economy. The main measures in the package were all aimed at helping businesses to increase their output and improve their technology—in other words, to boost the supply side of the economy. Yet
The ways in which demand could be boosted include hefty tax cuts, but those would be difficult because of the bad state of the public finances and a reluctance to risk making them worse. An alternative would be a substantial rise in the minimum wage, which would force business to raise wages for the poorest workers and would encourage it to seek ways to improve productivity. Yet that is opposed, not surprisingly, by business groups, despite the fact that
Such measures are, however, inconceivable until a general election has been held and probably until the LDP loses power. Hence the widespread international perception that Japan is drifting. That feeling of drift is going to last at least until an election has been held, and if the outcome is inconclusive it could persist for even longer.
A greater impact internationally would arise if the LDP, under a new prime minister, were to react to its poor political prospects and to Japan’s sense of drift by trying to stoke up nationalism and anti-China feelings. One cannot know whether such populism would be the instinctive choice of Taro Aso, a nationalist former foreign minister, if he, the current front-runner, is elected as the LDP’s leader on September 22nd. But plenty of people outside