Articles:
Italy must Prepare for Elections, and Fast

When you are in a hole, stop digging. A
wind of change is in the air. Yes, it is a mixture of tired old metaphors, but
that was the scolding and entirely justified message on April 22^nd
from a tired old man to Italy’s political class: face reality, he said, bring
in long-delayed reforms, tell the truth. There was just one important thing
President Giorgio Napolitano left out in his re-inauguration speech: prepare to
fight new elections, and soon.

The
fact that, after 50 days of failure to form a government following stalemated elections
in February, and five ballots of failure in Parliament to choose a new president,
the 87-year-old incumbent had to be begged to abandon retirement and accept an
unprecedented second seven-year term as head of state, was a devastating
indictment of the political class. Worse, it was living proof of the popular grievances
about self-serving, antiquated politicians touted by the old parties’ new
arch-enemy, Beppe Grillo and his internet-based Five Star Movement.

Responding to Mr
Grillo isn’t easy. The fact that his movement rose from zero four years ago to
25% in February’s polls was a genuine shock, a shock that could easily prove a
precursor for anti-politics campaigns elsewhere in Europe.His Parliamentarians are
proving obdurately unco-operative, and if you take him literally his demands threaten
both the euro and representative democracy itself.

Even so, the
response to what his rise represents—a cry for change, for new faces, for a new
generation of leaders—has been disastrous. The basic assumption, especially by
the left-wing Democratic Party that thought itself entitled to govern, has been
that the inexperienced Mr Grillo would soon lose popularity by misplaying his
hand, and that his 163 new parliamentarians would soon start defecting to other
parties. So this former comedian could be bluffed into self-destruction.

Instead
the self-destruction took place in the Democratic Party, which has imploded.
There was self-satisfaction for Silvio Berlusconi as his right-wing party at
least stayed loyal. But the real winner has been Mr Grillo. With one exception—a
call for a “march on Rome” that was redolent of Mussolini—he has played his
cards like a pro.

So
the question now is whether the political class will heed President
Napolitano’s words, and at last rise to the challenge. Most likely, a
government will be formed during the next few days, a grand coalition of left
and right, headed by as neutral and inoffensive a political figure as possible.
The danger is that this will presage another attempt to stave off reality and
play for time.

Instead, the parties
need to do three big things. First, they need to show that they are facing up
to the new realities. The new political reality is that voters are rebelling
against the old guard and demanding renovation. The new economic reality is
that amid a deepening recession and record youth unemployment, voters are
rebelling against a message full of austerity and devoid of hope.  

This
means, in the specific case of Italy’s left, that they need to jump a
generation and give a chance to the 38-year-old mayor of Florence, Matteo
Renzi, a rebel who speaks a positive, Blair-like language. Elections this week
in the north-eastern region of Friuli-Venezia-Giulia showed that when a
Democratic Party candidate exemplifies renovation—in this case by being 42 and
female—the Grillo vote can be halved.

Second,
the new government must set itself just a short, sharp agenda of reforms,
mainly political, to respond to the legitimate anger of Grillo’s voters: a new
electoral law that takes power away from party bosses, as well as ceasing to
give an undemocratic “majority prize” of extra seats to the largest party; deep
cuts in the number of parliamentarians, in provincial layers of government, and
other political costs.

The
third, however, is that after that spurt of reform the parties must be willing to
fight new elections later this year. The fear is that new polls might give Mr
Grillo even more power or, heaven forfend, send voters into the ever-welcoming
arms of Mr Berlusconi. But waiting, and failing to respond, will make such outcomes
even likelier. A strategy of wishful thinking is no strategy
at all.