Articles:
McCain and Obama – Supporting Globalization
20.05.08 Publication: Corriere della Sera
Those of us who are in favour of globalisation, who celebrate the way it has raised living standards and reduced poverty around the world, are forever worrying that there may soon be a backlash against it, a revival of protectionism and economic nationalism. A year ago, the prime candidate for such a backlash was the fount of globalisation itself, the
How can a free trader such as me make such a complacent statement? Don’t I know that during the Democratic Party’s amazingly long and dramatic primary contest, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have made speeches attacking trade deals? Didn’t I notice that the American Congress recently rejected a proposed bilateral trade deal with
One piece of good news is that the winner of the Democratic nomination is going to be Barack Obama, barring some implausible accident, and that he has been less strident in his anti-trade rhetoric than his opponent. But the main reason to be optimistic is that virtually all of the presidential candidates’ anti-trade language has been directed at
Of course, this could change. If unemployment were to rise sharply during the next few months, then the pressure to make promises to protect jobs from “unfair” Chinese competition might increase. John McCain, the Republican candidate, is a firm advocate of free trade, so Mr Obama might choose to sound protectionist in order to emphasise the difference between them. But actually, that is unlikely: since Mr McCain is a clear free trader, Mr Obama only needs to sound a little critical on trade in order to differentiate himself. That way, he will retain the maximum freedom of manoeuvre when he (as he hopes) becomes
The real arena for anti-globalisation rhetoric will be the Congressional elections, especially those held in areas which have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs. Given that the Democratic Party is likely to increase its domination of Congress in these elections, and that the Democrats have in recent decades been more protectionist than the Republicans, that could be worrying. Yet, as the current session of Congress (under Democrat leadership) has shown, what it is likely to mean is only that new trade-liberalisation deals will be blocked. The lack of further progress on trade, whether bilateral trade or the global “
All this is a far cry from 1999, when crowds of anti-globalisation protesters disrupted the meeting of the World Trade Organisation in