What Brexit Reveals About the EU
30.10.19 Publication: Project Syndicate
After almost four years of divisive Brexit politics, it is easy to forget that most UK voters had previously given little thought to the European Union. And according to recent polling, the same is true of voters across the rest of the EU, suggesting that the bloc's biggest problem is not Euroskepticism but indifference.
LONDON – In another bizarre twist in the Brexit saga, the United Kingdom’s Parliament has
signalled its acceptance of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s withdrawal deal with the European
Union, and yet has also decided there must be a general election on December 12th before the
deal can finally be ratified. EU leaders could be forgiven an ironic smile. Even though opinion
polls give Johnson’s pro-Brexit Conservatives a commanding lead as the campaign opens, they
also indicate that a clear majority of British voters –larger than the one that backed “Leave” in
the 2016 referendum – actually favors remaining in the EU [link].
But EU leaders may want to contain their smiles. The EU’s biggest enemy is not Euroskeptic
hostility, but rather indifference. Although polls taken even before the Brexit referendum in 2016
tended to show a majority for Remain, they also found that most Britons didn’t care about the
EU one way or another. The question of EU membership simply wasn’t a priority issue for most
people. It was assumed that voters would select the less risky option and support Remain. In
fact, their indifference put the referendum up for grabs.
As a result, random contingencies or the effectiveness of either side’s rhetoric had the potential
to push the result over the line in either direction. In the event, immigration had become an
especially potent issue in 2016, owing to media images of mass migration and refugee flows
across the Mediterranean and the Balkans. For the “Leave” campaign, the EU’s failure to
manage the crisis was a boon.
Yet when future historians look back at this episode, they will probably conclude that there was
an ocean of apathy between two sets of hard-core true believers on each side of the European
question. Britain had always been a semi-reluctant EU member state, so it didn’t take much to
tip the balance slightly in favor of leaving. The key moment came when then-Prime Minister
David Cameron, driven by political dynamics within the Conservative Party, made the fateful
decision to hold a referendum on the issue, amid the economic and political stress of the long
recession that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.
Ever since the establishment of the European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU) in
1957, Britons have had a rather detached, sometimes even condescending, view of European
integration. This remained the case even after the United Kingdom’s accession to the bloc in
1973, and even after a significant majority of British voters affirmed EU membership in a
referendum in 1975. For the British, being a part of “Europe” was a transactional relationship,
not a marriage of love.
By contrast, the countries that suffered the most from two world wars and German occupation
during World War II (France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy) have always had deeper,
more sentimental reasons for supporting the EU. The specter of war features prominently in
these countries’ collective memory, even among younger generations that were born long after
peace had been secured.
But even continental Europeans’ commitment to the European project should not be taken for
granted. This month, the think tank Friends of Europe published an opinion poll based on
interviews with 12,000 respondents across the 28 EU countries, and found that 60% of
respondents “aren’t sure they would miss the EU if it were gone.” That result should chill the
bones of all EU leaders.
Predictably, the share of British respondents who aren’t sure if they would miss the EU is 63%.
But a staggering 72% of French respondents feel the same way, as do 67% of Italians and 60%
of Germans. On this evidence, the EU’s biggest problem is that citizens simply take it for
granted, and do not particularly care whether it thrives or fades away.
This problem may reflect a failure of communication. After all, a supranational bureaucratic
entity comprising an endless array of directorates, agencies, and committees was always going
to find it hard to be loved, or even to explain what it does and why it exists. But the bigger
problem is that the EU struggles to make quick, clear, and ambitious decisions. It has a far
easier time saying no than yes. It is a lot better at defusing conflicts among members than it is
at mustering collective action in the interest of clearly defined shared objectives.
This wasn’t always the case. The launch of the euro in 1999 was a big, clear, epochal moment,
following a major political decision and the successful implementation of many technical
measures. But since then, things haven’t gone well when it comes to the one issue that most
concerns ordinary voters: the eurozone’s effectiveness at creating jobs and ensuring rising living
standards. Nowadays, the euro elicits reluctant acceptance, not passion and conviction.
The slogan of Britain’s famed Special Air Service is, “Who Dares Wins.” But in the case of Brexit, one could adapt it to say, “Who Cares Wins.” In the run-up to the 2016 referendum, pro-EU forces failed to make enough Britons care about EU membership. Perhaps that will change during the December general election campaign, but it would be risky to bet on it. Proponents of the EU across the other member states should take note. Indifference is their greatest enemy.
Image by Elionas2 from Pixabay