Articles:
What Trump Means for Britain

On the face of it, Donald Trump’s astonishing victory should
be good news for Britain, post-Brexit. The UK will no longer be “at the end of
the queue” for trade deals with the US, as President Obama warned, since all
the other trade deals in that queue will now be dropped, especially the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership the European Union has been
laboriously negotiating.

The key phrase, however, will be “be careful what you wish
for”. What Britain will learn is that “trade deals” are not the same as actual
trade, and that President Trump’s idea of a deal could differ substantially
from the more free-market end of the Brexiter spectrum. His thinking will be
closer to that of Nigel Farage than to David Davis or Liam Fox.

Beyond bilateral trade, the Trump era promises to make it
even more important for Theresa May’s government – or any successor after a
snap general election – to nurture a close partnership with the rest of Europe
even as it cosies up, as it surely will, to its old special relationship.

For Trump in the White House and Republicans still in
control of both houses of Congress is likely to pose several challenges for the
British government: 

1.    
NATO.
Britain has long argued that NATO should be the main focus of European security
policy, not any EU army or joint forces. But during the campaign, Mr Trump
disparaged NATO and its members, threatening to downgrade or even disown it if
member countries fail to spend enough on their own defence. Britain has done
better on that measure than most, but its armed forces are still looking
threadbare. A Trump presidency will pile pressure on Britain to spend more on
defence and could weaken NATO markedly. 

2.    
Russia. Britain
has taken a firm line on Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and its annexation of
Crimea, and its foreign secretary has claimed Russia should be prosecuted for
war crimes for its bombing of Aleppo. Boris Johnson even incited demonstrators
to protest outside the Russian embassy. While President Trump is unlikely to
become bosom buddies with Vladimir Putin, he is nevertheless likely to seek
compromises that could well make Britain feel distinctly uncomfortable. British
policy is closer to that of Angela Merkel than Donald Trump.

3.   
Iran.
As with Russia, Britain will find itself on the opposite side from
President Trump, at least as a starting point. The UK was one of the prime
movers behind the Iran nuclear deal which he has said during the campaign that
he wishes either to scrap or revise. He may not stick to that position, but one
thing is clear: he, and the Republicans in Congress, will be closer to Israel’s
position on Iran than President Obama was.

4.   
Climate
change. This will please some parts of the UK government, and many
Brexiters, but not all: it is pretty much certain that President Trump and the
Republican Congress will scrap the little that the US had done to meet global
climate commitments. Efforts to mitigate climate change will continue at state
level, but no federal effort can be expected.

5.   
World
trade. Finally, leaving aside the potential for any bilateral US-UK free
trade pact, the climate in Washington is now going to be hostile to all global
trade liberalization talks and possibly even some existing deals. We cannot
know in advance how protectionist the US is going to become. But we can know
that Britain, as a trading nation that wishes to buy and sell freely with the
whole world, is likely to be a loser if protectionism really does become the
flavour of the era.

Well,
at least the traditionally close relationship between our intelligence services
and those of America can still be depended upon. But it is not going to be a
comfortable or predictable ride. Theresa May and Boris Johnson had better mean
it when they say that post-Brexit Britain will have a great new partnership
with our European friends and neighbours. We’re going to need it.